Charles Oliveira destined for victory at UFC 317
Plus–Brandon Royval on his unique nickname
The MMA Notebook runs every Friday.
In this edition:
Charles Oliveira enters UFC 317 as massive underdog
Jon Jones’ latest debacle is another stain on his name
Brandon Royval on his “Raw Dawg” nickname
UFC 317 picks
Charles Oliveira enters 317 as massive underdog
Charles Oliveira is going to get ahold of Ilia Topuria’s back.
That is why, despite the staggering odds against it, Oliveira is destined to regain the lightweight title tomorrow night at UFC 317.
The undefeated Topuria, of course, has different plans. He wants to strike with Oliveira, which is the path that has helped him win all 17 of his fights. Both Alexander Volkanovski and Max Holloway learned the hard way that striking with Topuria is not a prudent decision, as both were knocked out.
If Topuria remained in the featherweight division and continued making defenses of his title, it would have been incredibly difficult to end to his reign. But the weight cut was too much, leading to his move to the lightweight division and a date in the cage against Islam Makhachev.
Except… Makhachev wasn’t interested. Makhachev moved to welterweight, where he will challenge reigning champion Jack Della Maddalena. That move vacated the lightweight title, which is on the line at UFC 317 between Topuria and Oliveira (who lost the title to Makhachev). For all the confidence surrounding Topuria, he has only fought once at lightweight–knocking out Jai Herbert in 2022–while Oliveira has crafted a Hall of Fame career in the division.
It is no surprise that Topuria enters this bout as a favorite. He has obliterated his opponents, and Oliveira isn’t exactly hard to hit. But listing Oliveira at +330 on DraftKings is absurd. If Oliveira takes this fight to the ground, there is no way to know how Topuria will react.
Oliveira, 35, has an ace of his own with his Brazilian jiu-jitsu. And he can take a punch. Neither Dustin Poirier or Justin Gaethje, two if the best strikers in the division, could knock out Oliveira.
Clearly, the public feels otherwise. But an upset is coming at 317.
Jon Jones’ latest debacle another stain on his name
Jon Jones’ sudden retirement now makes a lot more sense.
UFC CEO Dana White announced Jones’ retirement last Saturday night at the post-show presser following the event in Baku. Jones confirmed the news with a post on social media, and then a report from the Albuquerque Journal revealed that Jones is due in court next month due to a misdemeanor charge of leaving the scene of an accident this past February.
By itself, this is a bad look for Jones. Given his history with the law, it only makes matters worse.
In a roundabout way, it should lead to a return bout for Jones.
Jones, who turns 38 in a few weeks, is no longer UFC Heavyweight Champion. That distinction belongs to Tom Aspinall. But after winning the belt and defending it against Stipe Miocic, the motivation for Jones was no longer about the championship. As Jones detailed during the post-fight presser after he defeated Miocic, his focus is legacy fights. That was why he fought Miocic instead of Aspinall.
All of the current chaos should lead to Jones’ return. A healthy, focused Jones is the version that his coaches want to see. When he trains, he operates with a whole new purpose–and he is more likely to avoid problems outside the cage.
But with more information coming out on Jones’ issues from this past February, the end outcome will eventually be a return to the cage.
Brandon Royval on his unique nickname
Nicknames are common in MMA.
Brandon Royval’s nickname is much more out of the ordinary.
Known as “Raw Dawg”, Royval fights Joshua Van tomorrow at 317. Royval (17-7) enters the bout on a two-fight win streak, and despite entering the fight as only a slight favorite, all signs point to him extending his streak to three.
”The nickname came from a drunken fan yelling some crazy shit,” said Royval. “People were joking about it in the gym. Then I knocked out Danny Mainus [in 2016], it went viral, and I was superstitious so the nickname stuck.
“I’ve tried to get rid of it since then, but the nickname has been impossible to get rid of. It’s a joke that’s lasted way too long.”
Royval hopes the nickname leads to another knockout tomorrow. Van has won 14 of his 16 fights, including all but one of his nine UFC bouts. Only 23, there is reason to believe that he is the rising star of the division. He defeated Bruno Silva by TKO earlier this month, and he took this fight against Royval on short notice after Manel Kape withdrew.
If Van wins this fight, he will jump to the front of the line for a title shot. But it is more challenging to predict Royval’s future.
Royval has already lost twice to reigning champ Alexandre Pantoja. Their first fight took place in 2021, which Pantoja won by submission, and the second was a title defense that Pantoja won by unanimous decision in 2023. Royval saved his best for the final round in that fight, hammering Pantoja over the first two minutes, but it was not enough. A takedown by Pantoja with just over two minutes left in the fifth effectively ended that threat, securing the win for the champ. Pantoja exploited Royval’s takedown defense in that encounter, repeatedly bringing him to the mat. That is why Royval finds himself in a unique situation, seeking a third bout against Pantoja.
If Royval wins, he deserves another crack at the belt. He defeated Brandon Moreno in February of 2024, then knocked off undefeated rising star Tatsuro Taira in October. A win against Van should merit a title shot, even if Pantoja wins at UFC 317 and retains his title against Kai Kara-France.
And perhaps the third time will be the charm.
Pick ‘Em Section
UFC 317 vacant lightweight title bout: Ilia Topuria vs. Charles Oliveira
Pick: Charles Oliveira
UFC 317 flyweight title bout: Alexandre Pantoja (c) vs. Kai Kara-France
Pick: Alexandre Pantoja
UFC 317 flyweight bout: Brandon Royval vs. Joshua Van
Pick: Brandon Royval
UFC 317 lightweight bout: Renato Moicano vs. Beneil Dariush
Pick: Renato Moicano
UFC 317 bantamweight bout: Payton Talbott vs. Felipe Lima
Pick: Payton Talbott
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