Parlay in play for UFC 312
Can we go five-for-five?
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The MMA Notebook runs every Friday.
In this edition:
UFC 312, free speech, and a five-leg parlay
Jon Jones & Dom Cruz
UFC 312 predictions
UFC 312, free speech, and parlays
I’m going with the home cooking.
UFC 312 takes place in Sydney, Australia, and I like the matchups for the talent fighting at home. That includes Justin Tafa, Jim Crute, and Jake Matthews, which, to be fair, does not make for the most entertaining pay-per-view card. A little gambling, however, somehow adds some spice.
Dricus du Plessis is in the main event, where he defends the middleweight belt against Sean Strickland. This is a rematch from a year ago at UFC 297, where du Plessis won the belt in a razor thin split decision victory.
Before we go any further, Strickland’s career needs to be celebrated. After losing back-to-back fights in 2022, it appeared he was just another guy in the middleweight division. Yet, three fights later, he had disposed of the great Israel Adesanya and won the belt. Strickland also could have won the fight against du Plessis, another reason why he deserves this rematch.
Strickland last fought in June, defeating Paulo Costa in an uninspiring bout. He is an incredibly unorthodox fighter, but I feel like his expiration date has passed. Known for his brash humor and saying whatever it is he feels like saying, Strickland has exceeded his minutes in the UFC. I think du Plessis beats Strickland at his strength–boxing–and he seizes full control of the division (until, of course, Khamzat Chimaev is ready for a title shot).
But Strickland cannot be overlooked. Trained by the great Eric Nicksick, there will be a game plan in place to overcome du Plessis. On an otherwise disappointing card, this fight should deliver.
Zhang Weili, the reigning women’s strawweight champion, is an underdog in her title defense against Tatiana Suarez. If you’ve watched Weili fight, then seeing her as the underdog immediately raises red flags.
If Weili is healthy, there is every reason to believe she wins. Suarez (10-0) enters undefeated, but she hasn’t been tested all that often after a three-and-a-half-year hiatus from the sport, and there is a massive question as to how she’ll perform in this type of setting.
For Weili, there is no doubt. The champion shined in her past two title defenses.
Using lines from DraftKings, I like the champs to continue their reign, with du Plessis (-205) beating Strickland (+170) and Weili (+100) against Suarez (-120). As for the rest of the main card, I’m going with Matthews (-245) to beat Prado (+200), Crute (+136) pulling off a win as the underdog against Bellato (-162), and underdog Tafa (+120) to beat Teixeira (-142).
Five-for-five is the goal this weekend, and we’ll see if that pursuit injects some excitement into this card.
Vastly different announcements this week
Both Jon Jones and Dom Cruz took to social media to make announcements this week.
Jones teased his announcement, which immediately drew plenty of anticipation that he could be announcing his next fight. That quickly dissipated, however, the moment Jones made his ensuing post:
What a letdown. Maybe we’ll all be talking healthcare the next night out at the fights, but I doubt it. And in the event you don’t watch the video, there was no mention of a fight against Tom Aspinall.
Dom Cruz’s announcement, however, was altogether different.
Scheduled to fight Rob Font on February 22, Cruz announced his retirement from the sport.
A former UFC and WEC bantamweight champion, Cruz detailed his retirement from the sport.
“I have poured every ounce of myself into this sport for the last 25 years,” Cruz wrote. “I was really hopeful for one final fight but unfortunately, two shoulder dislocations in 8 months calls an end to this guy’s career.”
His final fight was a loss two summers ago against Chito Vera, which he was controlling until getting hit with a head kick in the fourth round. It would have been exciting to see Cruz, 39, work his way into one more bantamweight title shot, but injuries have consistently derailed his progress over the past eight years.
Cruz should now be able to focus more time on commentary, another role where he is exceptional. Never say never to a return, but if this is it, it marks the end of one of the greatest careers ever in MMA.
The Pick ‘Em Section
UFC 312 middleweight title bout: Dricus du Plessis (c) vs. Sean Strickland
Pick: Dricus du Plessis
UFC 312 women’s strawweight title bout: Zhang Weili (c) vs. Tatiana Suarez
Pick: Zhang Weili
UFC 312 heavyweight bout: Tallison Teixeira vs. Justin Tafa
Pick: Justin Tafa
UFC 312 light heavyweight bout: Rodolfo Bellato vs. Jim Crute
Pick: Jim Crute
UFC 312 welterweight bout: Francisco Prado vs. Jake Matthews
Pick: Jake Matthews
Super Bowl LIX: Kansas City Chiefs vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Pick: Kansas City Chiefs