Why the Topuria-Makhachev bout is inevitable
With Jones-Aspinall unlikely, this is the only bout that can headline UFC 317
The MMA Notebook runs every Friday.
In this edition:
Expect Makhachev-Topuria to headline International Fight Week
Weekend predictions
Expect Makhachev-Topuria to headline International Fight Week
Islam Makhachev has started fight camp.
So has Ilia Topuria.
And UFC CEO Dana White needs a marquee matchup for UFC 317 in June.
Add all of that up and the equation becomes simple: it is only a matter before the Makhachev-Topuria bout for the lightweight title gets announced.
The undefeated Topuria vacated the featherweight belt and exited the division, opting to move up a weight class and compete at lightweight. Clearly, he is not interested in an eliminator bout to prove himself; after knocking out Alexander Volkanovski and Max Holloway in successive bouts, he believes that he is already established–and deserving of a title shot against Makhachev.
It is hard to argue against Topuria, even though elite featherweights have struggled with the very move he is making. Conor McGregor, Volkanovski, and Holloway all flourished as featherweights, yet it was an entirely different terrain at lightweight.
For most featherweights who make the move to lightweight, their power simply is not the same when fighting against 155-pounders. But for Topuria, who admitted that the weight cuts were adversely affecting him–he is, after all, a 180-pounder masquerading as a 145-pound fighter–the move to lightweight becomes a necessity.
Naturally, plenty of out-of-cage drama surrounds this bout. Makhachev and his coach Khabib Nurmagomedov don’t believe Topuria has earned a title shot just yet, preferring a bout against Arman Tsarukyan. While it was a close fight, Makhachev already defeated Tsarukyan, and they were scheduled for a rematch this past January–but Tsarukyan withdrew right before the fight, and he was replaced by Renato Moicano, who was summarily demolished by Makhachev. A year ago, Makhachev faced a great challenge in Dustin Poirier, who brought him all the way to the fifth round of their bout. Makhachev, 33, will be severely tested if he accepts the bout against Topuria.
Topuria, 28, hasn’t fought since knocking out Holloway in October, sticking to his belief that his next fight will be against Makhachev for the title. Considering that UFC 317 takes place during International Fight Week in Vegas, Topuria is making a smart bet.
The only other bigger bout is a potential clash between Jon Jones and Tom Aspinall. That would finally settle the score between, respectively, the reigning heavyweight champion and the interim heavyweight champ. Even though Aspinall is eager to fight, Jones is back to playing his games–and there appears to be no fight in sight.
There are precious few other bouts that can headline in the same manner as Makhachev-Topuria. It would be foolish to think Conor McGregor is coming back any time soon (spoiler alert: he isn’t). Unless something dramatic happens in the Jones-Aspinall negotiations, we are destined to see Makhachev and Topuria headline UFC 317.
Another wrinkle is that Makhachev is heavily considering pursuing the welterweight title. That will be decided next month at UFC 315 in a bout pitting reigning champ Belal Muhammad against Jack Della Maddalena. It is somewhat complicated if Muhammad retains the title, as Makhachev has previously stated that he is not interested in fighting teammates. But if Della Maddalena wins, then there is no doubt that Makhachev will jump at that opportunity.
But Makhachev is in camp now. So it appears we can cast aside the idea that Topuria will fight Charles Oliveira for a newly vacated lightweight title. This is going to end one way: with Makhachev defending the belt–and his 15-fight win streak–against the undefeated Topuria.
As for who will win, that is a far more complex question. Makhachev possesses a size advantage and he would look to wrestle. Despite Topuria boasting that he could force Makhachev to tap out, this would be over the moment they grappled–with Makhachev winning. A year ago, Poirier proved that Makhachev is vulnerable on his feet, and that is the area in which Topuria would look to expose.
Topuria’s hands are lethal. His knockout power won’t disappear at lightweight, and that gives him an edge–and makes him a constant threat.
While the winner is up in the air, the date is not. UFC 317 isn’t just in need of a headline bout, it is a showcase that desperately needs this fight.
The Pick ‘Em Section
UFC Fight Night welterweight bout: Ian Machado Garry vs. Carlos Prates
Pick: Ian Machado Garry
UFC Fight Night light heavyweight bout: Anthony Smith vs. Zhang Mingyang
Pick: Zhang Mingyang
UFC Fight Night featherweight bout: David Onama vs. Giga Chikadze
Pick: David Onama
UFC Fight Night middleweight bout: Michel Pereira vs. Abus Magomedov
Pick: Michel Pereira
UFC Fight Night middleweight bout: Ikram Aliskerov vs. Andre Muniz
Pick: Ikram Aliskerov