Leaving Las Vegas... UFC 315 style
A look at the current UFC landscape through the lens of the Nicolas Cage classic
The MMA Notebook runs every Friday.
In this edition:
UFC 315, Leaving Las Vegas style
Weekend predictions
UFC is leaving Las Vegas.
At least for the weekend.
UFC 315 takes place tomorrow night at the Bell Centre in Montreal. With two title fights on the card, Montreal Canadiens fans are guaranteed to finally see a world champion.1
Belal Muhammad makes the first title defense of his welterweight championship against Jack Della Maddalena. Muhammad hasn’t fought since winning the belt last July, and he’ll look to put an end to Della Maddalena’s 17-fight win streak.
The second title fight at UFC 315 is women’s flyweight champ Valentina Shevchenko taking on Manon Fiorot. Since we’ve become so accustomed to seeing Alexa Grasso whenever we see Shevchenko, it should come as no surprise that Grasso is also competing on this card.
There is a comfort level about seeing big fights in Las Vegas, which has become the fight capital of the world. But that won’t be the case here, as UFC enters foreign terrain2. It also opens the door to put a magnifying glass on the UFC through the lens of Leaving Las Vegas, which Detective Jake Peralta once aptly described as a dark ponderous reflection on alcoholism that earned Nicolas Cage an Oscar.
So let’s get to it. Here are a handful of quotes from Leaving Las Vegas that capture what is happening inside and out of the Octagon as we approach UFC 315.
I.) “It’s not easy, but I’m very good.”
Before we get to Nic Cage, let’s spend a moment on Elisabeth Shue’s work as Sera.
In a word, she was brilliant.
Cage gets the credit, and rightfully so, for his Best Actor-winning performance as Ben Sanderson. But as Sanderson moves to Las Vegas to drink himself to death, he wouldn’t have reached the highs–or sobering lows–without Sera. Their chemistry was palpable, and Shue showed her evolution as a performer with this mesmerizing performance.3
This all connects to Alex Pereira. Earlier in the week, Pereira expressed his frustrations on Twitter… before deleting the tweet and saying he was hacked.
Life as champion is far more glamorous than a day-to-day existence without the belt. Ever since Pereira dropped the UFC Light Heavyweight title in March to Magomed Ankalaev4, he’s likely been treated differently. That doesn’t mean Pereira was purposefully disrespected by the UFC’s powers-that-be, but he is familiar with being treated one way–as the champ–and that is no longer the case.
But the UFC needs Pereira. He fights hurt. He fights often. In a world where Jon Jones still hasn’t signed a contract to fight Tom Aspinall, and we’ll likely never see Conor McGregor again, a star like Pereira is more valuable than ever.
The fact that the tweet was quickly deleted is a positive sign for the Pereira-UFC relationship. Pereira will be called upon–and soon–to headline again for the UFC.
II.) “It’s not ‘Vino Veritas’. It’s ‘In Vino Veritas!’”
Here’s some truth for you: UFC is a better place when José Aldo is prominently involved.
After a short retirement in 2022, Aldo returned in 2024. He split his two fights, and his first bout of 2025 is against Aiemann Zahabi–who is riding a five-fight winning streak. But the 37-year-old Zahabi will be overmatched by Aldo, who simply has more ways to win this fight.
But the truth is the truth. The renaissance will only last for so long for the 38-year-old Aldo. Eventually, he’ll face a young, hungry featherweight that overpowers him (similar to what Merab Dvalishvili did to him at bantamweight in 2022, which led to his retirement). That connects to Ben Sanderson’s fall from grace during his a quick-but-gnarly bar fight, when he flirts with the wrong woman and gets in the face of the wrong man.
III.) “Maybe you shouldn’t drink so much.”
“Maybe I shouldn’t breathe so much!”
Valentina Shevchenko is at home in the cage.
She is on top of the world after defeating Alexa Grasso, regaining her flyweight title last September in Vegas. But the 37-year-old did not retire in a blaze of glory after the victory. Instead, she’s back for more–this time against Manon Fiorot, who has won all seven of her fights in the Octagon.
It’s now or never for Fiorot. She finally has her title shot–and she is getting a vulnerable Shevchenko. Whether Fiorot, 35, can grapple with Shevchenko is a question, but if this fight is contested on the feet, then it is Fiorot’s to win. And it will be her crowning moment if she becomes the first-ever to beat Shevchenko by TKO.
For Shevchenko, there is no other way. This is how it has to be–going out on her shield.
IV.) “That was a red light. I walk. You stop.”
A pattern has developed in Belal Muhammad’s fights:
He dominates.
Muhammad outclassed Leon Edwards last July, winning the welterweight championship. He has yet to defend it, dealing with a myriad of issues that included a bone infection in his foot. That prevented him from defending the belt in December against Shavkat Rakhmonov, which may have been a blessing in disguise. Now Muhammad enters this bout rested and at full strength.
As dynamic as Della Maddalena has been in the cage, he was tested by Kevin Holland and Leon Edwards. Muhammad represents an altogether different beast, and his title reign will continue after he wins this bout.5
V.) “I never expected to ask this again, but how did our evening go?”
Dana White has wisely promoted that the main event will directly impact UFC 317, adding more significance to this card.
If Muhammad wins, then Ilia Topuria will face Islam Makhachev. But if Della Maddalena is victorious, then Topuria will fight Charles Oliveira–while Makhachev gets a crack at Della Maddalena.
Color me skeptical. Regardless of the finish, I think we’re destined to see Makhachev defend the lightweight title against the undefeated Topuria at UFC 317. That card needs a major headliner, and Makhachev-Topuria fits the bill. It becomes a lock if Muhammad defeats Della Maddalena, which I believe he will–leaving Oliveira to serve as the backup.
The inevitable inevitably occurs. That brings us back to Ben Sanderson, who was destined to drink himself to death in Las Vegas.6
The Pick ‘Em Section
UFC 315 welterweight title bout: Belal Muhammad (c) vs. Jack Della Maddalena
Pick: Belal Muhammad
UFC 315 women’s flyweight title bout: Valentina Shevchenko (c) vs. Manon Fiorot
Pick: Manon Fiorot
UFC 315 bantamweight bout: José Aldo vs. Aiemann Zahabi
Pick: José Aldo
UFC 315 women’s flyweight bout: Alexa Grasso vs. Natália Silva
Pick: Alexa Grasso
UFC 315 lightweight bout: Kyle Prepolec vs. Benoît Saint Denis
Pick: Benoît Saint Denis
****
Last week: 4-1
2025 record: 49-27 (64%)
I couldn’t resist… but come on, 1993 was a long time ago.
Don’t expect to see President Trump. Or, for that matter, Joe Rogan.
We’d come a long way since Adventures of Babysitting.
A fight that, yes, I thought Pereira won.
By decision, of course.
The way Cage nailed the mannerisms and behavior of an alcoholic in a way that made his performance so enduring.